Unless you were one of the few fortunate souls to buy a home in California many years ago when prices were affordable, it's just not realistic for a new home buyer to afford a house on the west coast.
Home Price Disparity
"On the coasts, average incomes are higher. But just a bit. In Los Angeles, an average family makes about 15 percent more than in Oklahoma City. But an average home in Los Angeles costs 600 percent more than in Oklahoma City."
Simply put, this is ridiculous that home prices are so out of whack with incomes in California. These soaring home prices are the result of greed and it puts the possibility of owning a home by an average income ( or even middle-to-high income ) family way out of reach. As a result, lenders have become more "creative" in their approaches to allow people to hang themselves with their mortgages. Interest only loans are one of the many foolish attempts by lenders to get people into homes.
I heard another story on the news the other night about a single black woman who is a nurse in New York. Apparantly, she was able to get into a home with a nice fat mortgage of $4,000/month !!! Yes, a nurse with a $4,000/month mortgage. Even if she was one of the world's most successful nurses making six figures, a mortgage of this amount would be almost impossible for her to afford. Yet, the mortgage lender thought she could handle it. So, keeping in mind that a mortgage should not exceed 28% of your gross monthly income, this woman would have to be making $171,428/year (or $14,000/month) in order to afford this home. It's highly unlikely she is making that much money (even in New York City). You know, I keep slamming mortgage companies, but at some point people need to wake up and stop insisting that they are entitled to a home and to discontinue this foolishness of getting themselves into mortgages that are just not realistic.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Another Foreclosure Story
As I was listening to Market Place Money on the radio yesterday, I heard a caller with a story that typifies the mentality of so many people with financial troubles and the blinders they wear. A woman called into the show explaining that she, her husband and two kids need a larger home. As a result, they put their existing home on the market. Problem is that their home has been on the market for 15 months without any serious buyer prospects. Now, the caller states the family is considering foreclosing on the home just to get out of it. Has the credit implications not sunk in with this seller? Is a larger home really necessary? Can the family not be content where they are? A foreclosure is an option on the current home, yet they are looking for a larger home??? Either I completely missed the point of the call or this woman is high.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Hebeler Article
I like some of the thoughts Mr. Hebeler has in this writeup...
Hebeler Article
Very problematic issues in our society...
Large Homes
Multiple Automobiles
Unbridled Consumerism
Record Debts
Low Savings
Escalating Health Care Costs
"There are those that say the savings rate doesn’t matter. This argument was voiced when investments grew so much during the late nineties. In an effort to keep consumerism going, some economists said that people didn’t have to add to savings because investments had grown so much on their own. Then the market fell, and we didn’t hear from these economists again until the recent escalation of home prices. Now they have again come out of their scholarly cubicles with the same story based on the theory that home prices will continue to grow, and equity growth will be recovered sometime in the future as the population downsizes their homes or takes out additional debt using homes as collateral. Never mind that homes as investments are equivalent to illiquid highly leveraged long term securities which would be shunned by the average person if they had a name other than home." -- Henry Hebeler
Hebeler Article
Very problematic issues in our society...
"There are those that say the savings rate doesn’t matter. This argument was voiced when investments grew so much during the late nineties. In an effort to keep consumerism going, some economists said that people didn’t have to add to savings because investments had grown so much on their own. Then the market fell, and we didn’t hear from these economists again until the recent escalation of home prices. Now they have again come out of their scholarly cubicles with the same story based on the theory that home prices will continue to grow, and equity growth will be recovered sometime in the future as the population downsizes their homes or takes out additional debt using homes as collateral. Never mind that homes as investments are equivalent to illiquid highly leveraged long term securities which would be shunned by the average person if they had a name other than home." -- Henry Hebeler
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Best practices for building/retaining your wealth...
Some good tips here from money.com regarding best practices for building/retaining your wealth.
1. The best home renovation is to upgrade an old bathroom. Kitchens come in second.
2. Refinance your mortgage when you can cut your interest rate by at least one point.
3. Spend no more than 2 1/2 times your income on a home.
4. For a down payment, it's best to come up with at least 20%.
5. Your total housing payments should not exceed 28% of your gross income.
6. Total debt payments should come in under 36%.
7. The best place to invest is a 401(k).
8. Max out a Roth IRA.
9. Subtract your age from 120 to determine how much of portfolio should be in stock.
10. Invest no more than 10% of your portfolio in your company stock.
11. Don't pay more than 1% in fees for a mutual fund.
12. If you don't understand how an investment works, don't buy it.
13. If you're not saving 10% of your salary, you aren't saving enough.
14. Keep three months living expenses a savings account for emergencies.
15. If you have kids or rely on one income, make it six months emergency fund.
16. Aim to accumulate enough money to pay for a third of your kids' college costs.
17. You need enough life insurance to replace at least five years of your salary.
18. With children, you need life insurance to replace 10 years salary.
19. When you buy insurance, choose the highest deductible you can afford.
20. The best credit card is a no-fee rewards card that you pay in full every month.
21. The best way to improve your credit score is to pay bills on time.
22. Do not borrow more than 30% of your available credit.
23. Buy late-model used cars and drive them until it's junk.
24. Resist the urge to buy the latest computer or other gadget.
25. Buy airline tickets early. Most seats go on sale 11 months in advance.
26. When you shop for electronics, don't pay for an extended warranty.
1. The best home renovation is to upgrade an old bathroom. Kitchens come in second.
2. Refinance your mortgage when you can cut your interest rate by at least one point.
3. Spend no more than 2 1/2 times your income on a home.
4. For a down payment, it's best to come up with at least 20%.
5. Your total housing payments should not exceed 28% of your gross income.
6. Total debt payments should come in under 36%.
7. The best place to invest is a 401(k).
8. Max out a Roth IRA.
9. Subtract your age from 120 to determine how much of portfolio should be in stock.
10. Invest no more than 10% of your portfolio in your company stock.
11. Don't pay more than 1% in fees for a mutual fund.
12. If you don't understand how an investment works, don't buy it.
13. If you're not saving 10% of your salary, you aren't saving enough.
14. Keep three months living expenses a savings account for emergencies.
15. If you have kids or rely on one income, make it six months emergency fund.
16. Aim to accumulate enough money to pay for a third of your kids' college costs.
17. You need enough life insurance to replace at least five years of your salary.
18. With children, you need life insurance to replace 10 years salary.
19. When you buy insurance, choose the highest deductible you can afford.
20. The best credit card is a no-fee rewards card that you pay in full every month.
21. The best way to improve your credit score is to pay bills on time.
22. Do not borrow more than 30% of your available credit.
23. Buy late-model used cars and drive them until it's junk.
24. Resist the urge to buy the latest computer or other gadget.
25. Buy airline tickets early. Most seats go on sale 11 months in advance.
26. When you shop for electronics, don't pay for an extended warranty.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Appliance Life Expectancy
It's not cool to occassionally have the need to shell out some bucks for stuff that breaks around the house. Here's a handy web page with the average life expectancy of household appliances. This might help some of us stash a little cash away in anticipation of the inevitable with these fallible electronics.
Appliance Life Expectancy
The average cost of some of these big ticket items...
Refrigerator - $400 - $2,000
Microwave - $40 - $1,000
Dryer - $200 - $1,900
Washer - $300 - $1,900
Dishwasher - $200 - $1,300
Appliance Life Expectancy
The average cost of some of these big ticket items...
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Subprime Loans
Subprime loans have been in the news quite a bit lately, but not for the same reasons they were in the media a couple years ago.
Defaults and Foreclosures are climbing rapidly across the country. Unfortunately, a good number of the population who "qualified" for these loans should not have been given the opportunity to hang themselves. I firmly place the blame for this looming crisis on the mortgage industry and their creative efforts to create several new loan types that are simply ridiculous. I like the Implode-a-meter. It represents how out of control the mortgage lending institution has become. Fortunately, we live in a country where capitalism has a way of correcting itself by weeding out these idiots that suck people into something that only, ultimately, sets others up for failure.
A few quotes from regulators and critics of subprime lenders...
"subprime borrowers may not fully understand the risks" -- originator times
"Borrowers with bad credit are going to find it harder to get a home loan or refinance" -- credit.com
"Some have viewed the burgeoning subprime mortgage market as just such a ticking timebomb" -- costar group
"We're looking at subprime" -- SEC enforcement director Linda Thomsen
Defaults and Foreclosures are climbing rapidly across the country. Unfortunately, a good number of the population who "qualified" for these loans should not have been given the opportunity to hang themselves. I firmly place the blame for this looming crisis on the mortgage industry and their creative efforts to create several new loan types that are simply ridiculous. I like the Implode-a-meter. It represents how out of control the mortgage lending institution has become. Fortunately, we live in a country where capitalism has a way of correcting itself by weeding out these idiots that suck people into something that only, ultimately, sets others up for failure.
A few quotes from regulators and critics of subprime lenders...
"subprime borrowers may not fully understand the risks" -- originator times
"Borrowers with bad credit are going to find it harder to get a home loan or refinance" -- credit.com
"Some have viewed the burgeoning subprime mortgage market as just such a ticking timebomb" -- costar group
"We're looking at subprime" -- SEC enforcement director Linda Thomsen
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Brokers
Let's talk about Personal Finance again now that my obsession with College Basketball is coming to a halt until next year. I know I'm once again stating the obvious, but YOU are the alone one who truely has your best financial interest in mind. Your financial future should NOT be put into the hands of a BROKER. A Broker is NOT a Financial Planner/Advisor. A Broker's job is to SELL you something in order to serve his/her best interest. As a matter of fact, the law states that a Broker MUST convey to his/her clients that his advice is not comprehensive and that his interests do not dovetail with his client's interest. A Broker takes your money and will attempt to perform as many trades as he reasonably thinks he can get away with while charging you a fee for each transaction. Churning is a common term used to describe this activity. As much as the Brokerage firms try to communicate they have your best interest in mind, the truth is that they are working hard to line their own pockets.
Would a Broker lie to you?
Churning = An unethical practice employed by some brokers to increase their commissions by excessively trading in a client's account. This practice violates the NASD Fair Practice Rules. It is also referred to as "churn and burn", "twisting" and "overtrading". --- www.dictionary.com
Check out the Devil's Derivative Dictionary definition of churning.
Would a Broker lie to you?
Churning = An unethical practice employed by some brokers to increase their commissions by excessively trading in a client's account. This practice violates the NASD Fair Practice Rules. It is also referred to as "churn and burn", "twisting" and "overtrading". --- www.dictionary.com
Check out the Devil's Derivative Dictionary definition of churning.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Texas A&M Basketball
Texas A&M had a terrific year in basketball. In spite of our loss yesterday, I'm so proud of what our team accomplished. This team will go down in history as one of the greatest teams in school history. But, I think this is only the beginning. I feel strongly that Billy Gillespie will be back coaching our team next year. He is a Texas boy through and through and I truely believe his heart is in the A&M program and has a real desire to win a National Championship. With the current administration in place, I feel like we have all the right facilities and staff to make this happen in the near future.
Honestly, I think we have the capability of being better next year. To this point, we have been overachieving with a bunch of hard working guys. The talent level we have in place in this year's Freshmen and Sophomore classes, along with the very strong incoming recruiting class, our athleticism is going to step up to the next level.
Let's take a brief glance at our potential starters and bench that will provide the key to our success next year...
Donald Sloan ( Guard )
Joseph Jones ( Forward )
Josh Carter ( Forward )
Dominique Kirk ( Guard )
DeAndre Jordan ( Center )
Bryan Davis ( Forward )
Bryan Beasley ( Guard )
Elonu Chinemelu ( Center )
Victor Dubovitskiy ( Forward )
Gig em !!
Honestly, I think we have the capability of being better next year. To this point, we have been overachieving with a bunch of hard working guys. The talent level we have in place in this year's Freshmen and Sophomore classes, along with the very strong incoming recruiting class, our athleticism is going to step up to the next level.
Let's take a brief glance at our potential starters and bench that will provide the key to our success next year...
Donald Sloan ( Guard )
Joseph Jones ( Forward )
Josh Carter ( Forward )
Dominique Kirk ( Guard )
DeAndre Jordan ( Center )
Bryan Davis ( Forward )
Bryan Beasley ( Guard )
Elonu Chinemelu ( Center )
Victor Dubovitskiy ( Forward )
Gig em !!
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
House Flippers
House flippers have now surpassed lawyers as the most unscrupulous and detrimental element of our society. Here's an article that illustrates the greed of these people and how they prey on the more vulnerable of our society. Through this process, they continue to push up the cost of living for everyone and make it more difficult to afford a home these days.
This house flipper found an unfortunate widow living in a nursing home to take advantage of. According to the article, Spickes herself states the elderly lady could sell her home herself for $130,000. Spickes, however, exagerates the closing costs and fees to the poor woman and tells the home owner she would be better off selling it to her at a grand price of $95,000. According to my math, if the widow sold the home for $130,000, I would estimate closing cost in the range of $10,000 ( 6% for buyer's and seller' agents and maybe another $2,200 in other fees ). This would allow the woman to walk away with $120,000. Instead, the house flipper goes to work on the lady in her weakened state and convinces the poor victim that $95,000 is a great deal for both parties. That leaves a total of $25,000 out of the elderly woman's purse that represents a very significant portion of her overall portfolio that should be available to her for her critical needs as a widow.
Fortunately, our economy has a way of correcting itself and karma has a real nice way of repaying people who take advantage of the poor and elderly. And believe me, I know how much bad karma this house flipper has brought into the world - she is my ex-wife. I'll just leave it at that.
This house flipper found an unfortunate widow living in a nursing home to take advantage of. According to the article, Spickes herself states the elderly lady could sell her home herself for $130,000. Spickes, however, exagerates the closing costs and fees to the poor woman and tells the home owner she would be better off selling it to her at a grand price of $95,000. According to my math, if the widow sold the home for $130,000, I would estimate closing cost in the range of $10,000 ( 6% for buyer's and seller' agents and maybe another $2,200 in other fees ). This would allow the woman to walk away with $120,000. Instead, the house flipper goes to work on the lady in her weakened state and convinces the poor victim that $95,000 is a great deal for both parties. That leaves a total of $25,000 out of the elderly woman's purse that represents a very significant portion of her overall portfolio that should be available to her for her critical needs as a widow.
Fortunately, our economy has a way of correcting itself and karma has a real nice way of repaying people who take advantage of the poor and elderly. And believe me, I know how much bad karma this house flipper has brought into the world - she is my ex-wife. I'll just leave it at that.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
2007 Sweet Sixteen
The 2007 Sweet Sixteen and how I ranked them prior to the beginning of the tournament...
2006 transpired this way...
2006 transpired this way...
Monday, March 19, 2007
Texas A&M vs. Louisville
On Saturday, Louisville lost to A&M by 3 points. However, they had a chance for the win when they were down by only 1 with the ball and 16 seconds remaining. Pitino drew up a couple plays as options, but the freshman point guard, Edgar Sosa, decided to take an ill-advised 3 point shot. A couple weeks ago, I discussed the value of having upperclassman in a team's lineup. This is a perfect example of how a young team can let close games slip away. The odds were in Sosa's favor if he would have just simply driven the lane. He, most likely, would have been fouled and given two free throws to potentially win the game for Louisville. Fortunately for the Aggies, Sosa's youth got the best of him.
"Coach [Rick Pitino] told me to look for Jerry [Smith] coming off a stagger screen and [Terrence Williams] off a screen," Sosa said. "If both were denied, he told me to go the basket at 6 seconds." - Hartford Courant
"Pitino said there were three options coming out of a timeout with 16.4 seconds remaining and trailing by one point, and Sosa taking a 3-point attempt was not one of those." - New York Post
"Coach [Rick Pitino] told me to look for Jerry [Smith] coming off a stagger screen and [Terrence Williams] off a screen," Sosa said. "If both were denied, he told me to go the basket at 6 seconds." - Hartford Courant
"Pitino said there were three options coming out of a timeout with 16.4 seconds remaining and trailing by one point, and Sosa taking a 3-point attempt was not one of those." - New York Post
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Morgan is 11 months old...
Morgan is 11 months old today. We had a wonderful time at the park yesterday and got several really good pictures of Morgan. The next few months will be very busy (especially for Dayna and Morgan). They are headed to Orlando to see Dayna's mom and step-father, then back to Tulsa to catch my parents passing through to Nebraska. Then, in May, Dayna and Morgan will be off again. This time to Vegas to see Doug and Linda and Dayna's brothers.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Texas A&M won a pretty big game today.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Texas A&M won a pretty big game today.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Big game today!
Today is the day the Aggies have worked so hard for all year. The game against Louisville in Lexington will determine how I feel about this season. A win will give me complete satisfaction that we made it to the Sweet 16 with an opportunity to play Memphis and Ohio State in San Antonio next weekend. A loss will cause me to doubt how good we really are and whether or not we can truely contend with the big boys in the NCAA Tournament. I do know one thing though. Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I know the game will be closely contested. With the quality of our defense, there is no team in the country that will blow out A&M. Louisville will not get the satisfaction of beating us by 20 like they did Stanford two days ago.
Gig em !!!
Gig em !!!
Friday, March 16, 2007
March Madness 2008
Here are my rankings now that Selection Sunday is behind us.
A few observations so far...
Arizona - They are a 10 seed, but have the skills to make the Sweet 16.
Washington State is seeded too high at 4.
Kansas State is seeded to low.
Michigan State lacks discipline and are too high at 5.
Watch out for Pittsburg. They are good.
Butler will make the Sweet 16.
BYU should not be an 8.
Temple is 12 seed that is likely to beat a 5 seed.
A few observations so far...
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Madness May Now Ensue !!!
All possible permutations have been analyzed to the n-th degree. Let's all stop the smack talking and put our brackets (and butts!!) on the line. Let's get it on !!!
The Final Bracket
I'll just close with this quote from a notable sportswriter...
The South Region Pick: Texas A&M. The most talented team in the region is top-seed Ohio State and the hardest to gauge is second-seed Memphis. The most seasoned, however, is Texas A&M. Led by All-America senior point guard Acie Law IV, the Aggies knocked off Syracuse in last year's tourney and won at Kansas earlier this year. The Aggies composure and craftiness will be too much for the young Buckeyes in the Elite Eight.--- Stewart Mandel, SI.com
Gig Em !!!
The Final Bracket
I'll just close with this quote from a notable sportswriter...
The South Region Pick: Texas A&M. The most talented team in the region is top-seed Ohio State and the hardest to gauge is second-seed Memphis. The most seasoned, however, is Texas A&M. Led by All-America senior point guard Acie Law IV, the Aggies knocked off Syracuse in last year's tourney and won at Kansas earlier this year. The Aggies composure and craftiness will be too much for the young Buckeyes in the Elite Eight.--- Stewart Mandel, SI.com
Gig Em !!!
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
My Yahoo! Bracket Characteristics
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
More Bracket Thoughts
I plagerized this, but I thought it contained a few good ideas...
1st Round:
#16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined. Upsets are frequent when dealing with #12 through #9 seeds. #12 seeds have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.
2nd Round:
#1 seeds win their first two games 86% of the time. Consider keeping the #12 and #10 seeds dancing through round 2. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds). Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two. Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.
Sweet 16:
Advance three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game). Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8. NOT ONE has ever advanced.
Elite Eight:
Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years. Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.
Final Four:
Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years.
Championship Game:
Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher.
1st Round:
#16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined. Upsets are frequent when dealing with #12 through #9 seeds. #12 seeds have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.
2nd Round:
#1 seeds win their first two games 86% of the time. Consider keeping the #12 and #10 seeds dancing through round 2. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds). Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two. Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.
Sweet 16:
Advance three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game). Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8. NOT ONE has ever advanced.
Elite Eight:
Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years. Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.
Final Four:
Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years.
Championship Game:
Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher.
Monday, March 12, 2007
My Brackets
As of today, here's what they look like...
Yahoo! Tournament Pick em - NdcPerKesson Work
ESPN Tournament Challege - texags.com
Unfortunately, due to the fact that the ESPN web people suck, I'm unable to create a PDF bracket. I'll use snag-it to capture the brackets and put them out here on my website at some point.
By the way, for those interested, the NIT Tournament lineup has been set as well. Two Big XII teams (Kansas State and Oklahoma State) are among the contenders.
Unfortunately, due to the fact that the ESPN web people suck, I'm unable to create a PDF bracket. I'll use snag-it to capture the brackets and put them out here on my website at some point.
By the way, for those interested, the NIT Tournament lineup has been set as well. Two Big XII teams (Kansas State and Oklahoma State) are among the contenders.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Selection Sunday
Today is the day !!! Selection Sunday is here. My Final Rankings. Fourteen of these teams will not be dancing come Thursday. Based on my rankings, these are the teams I do not feel are worthy of an NCAA bid. The bursting may now commence !!!
Drexel
Akron
Old Dominion
Iowa
Nevada - will probably get in
Kansas State
Texas Tech - will probably get in
Alabama
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
BYU - will probably get in
Georgia
Michigan
Vanderbilt - will probably get in
Xavier
Stanford
Air Force
Syracuse
Saturday, March 10, 2007
The Latest Morgan Pics
With March Madness in full swing I feel like I've been neglecting Morgan's web page. Although I have not updated the page until now, we've had lots going on with her. She continues to develop her little personality is on the verge of walking while completely unassisted.
The Latest Morgan Pics
The Latest Morgan Pics
Friday, March 9, 2007
Falling Into Place
North Carolina takes over the top spot. Georgetown is looking mighty fine these days. Duke is still high on the list, but of their four quality wins, the Air Force and Boston College victories are not looking all that impressive at the moment. A couple new potential dance members hit the board...
Arkansas
Oklahoma State
In my view, it's also worth mentioning again that the following are overrated and will fall early in the tournament...
Memphis
Nevada
Southern Illinois
Butler ( if they get in )
BYU
Air Force ( if they get in )
Selection Sunday is tomorrow at 5pm Central Time. Here's another Tip Sheet for filling in your brackets.
In my view, it's also worth mentioning again that the following are overrated and will fall early in the tournament...
Selection Sunday is tomorrow at 5pm Central Time. Here's another Tip Sheet for filling in your brackets.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Newcomers
In spite of their first round conference tournament loss, UCLA remains atop the Karas Criterion and a few newcomers have made the list as potential dance candidates...
Florida State
Michigan
Iowa
Akron
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Playin' the Odds
Below are a few tips I've picked up along the way for filling in your brackets...
The 14, 15 and 16 seeds lose in the first round 95% of the time. So, you have a 5% chance of looking like a genius if you pick one of these huge underdogs or a 95% chance of looking like a fool.
75% of the time the higher seed wins when the two teams are separated by 4 or more seed spots.
The 9 seeds quite often beat the 8 seeds in the first round.
Many cinderellas come out of the 12 seed to beat the 5 seed in the first round or the 11 seed to beat the 6 seed or in some cases the 13 seed beating the 4 seed.
All four number one seeds never reach the Final Four together.
On average, two of the four number one seeds reach the Final Four - see Tourney History.
The 14, 15 and 16 seeds lose in the first round 95% of the time. So, you have a 5% chance of looking like a genius if you pick one of these huge underdogs or a 95% chance of looking like a fool.
75% of the time the higher seed wins when the two teams are separated by 4 or more seed spots.
The 9 seeds quite often beat the 8 seeds in the first round.
Many cinderellas come out of the 12 seed to beat the 5 seed in the first round or the 11 seed to beat the 6 seed or in some cases the 13 seed beating the 4 seed.
All four number one seeds never reach the Final Four together.
On average, two of the four number one seeds reach the Final Four - see Tourney History.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Conference Tourney Time
Log5 Predictions for the power conferences. Pomeroy's application of the Log5 formula to the Big 12 Tournament predicts there is a 53% chance that Kansas and Texas A&M will meet in the Championship Game.
The Log5 Principle basically states that in a short series (i.e. max of six games in the NCAA basketball tournament for each team) anything can happen in spite of statistics that lead us to believe a certain outcome is somewhat certain. Here's an example of the Big 12 on February 27th. The starting point for the calculation is the Pomeroy ranking (i.e. Kansas = 0.9872, Texas A&M = 0.9827, Texas = 0.9482, etc).
Last year, I factored in the Log5 into the Karas Criterion, but this year I did not. I'll simply refer to it as one source of information when making my picks this year.
Have fun with it (particularly if you are a betting person) !!!
The Log5 Principle basically states that in a short series (i.e. max of six games in the NCAA basketball tournament for each team) anything can happen in spite of statistics that lead us to believe a certain outcome is somewhat certain. Here's an example of the Big 12 on February 27th. The starting point for the calculation is the Pomeroy ranking (i.e. Kansas = 0.9872, Texas A&M = 0.9827, Texas = 0.9482, etc).
Last year, I factored in the Log5 into the Karas Criterion, but this year I did not. I'll simply refer to it as one source of information when making my picks this year.
Have fun with it (particularly if you are a betting person) !!!
Monday, March 5, 2007
Conference vs Conference
Is the Southeastern Conference really that good? Is the Atlantic Coast Conference worthy of having 7 teams in the NCAA tournament? How about the Missouri Valley Conference with Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State? Well, according to Real Time RPI, these conferences are among the best in the country because of their team's average RPI and Strength-of-Schedule. However, as we saw last year, the ACC and Big East teams play a decidely different type of basketball then some of the other leagues. Some leagues are tinted more toward defense, while others are very offensive minded. It's very difficult to say how things will play out against teams from different leagues.
A few examples among the top teams...
UCLA - lost 3 of 4 games in conference; beat Big 10, Big 12 and SEC teams
North Carolina - lost to West Coast Conference (Gonzaga)
Ohio State - lost to ACC and SEC teams
Florida - lost to Big 12 (Kansas) early in season
Duke - did not play real high profile teams out of conference
Pittsburgh - lost to Big 10 and Big 12
Georgetown - lost to Pac 10 and ACC
Wisconsin - handled Big East and SEC teams well
Maryland - managed to beat Big 10 teams well
Kentucky - beat up by quality teams from Pac 10, CUSA and ACC
Overall, I think the Big 10 is weak. The Big 12 is better then their average RPI due to level of competition in league play. Personally, I think the Pac 10 may be the best conference in the country. I have a hard time taking the Missouri Valley Conference seriously.
A few examples among the top teams...
Overall, I think the Big 10 is weak. The Big 12 is better then their average RPI due to level of competition in league play. Personally, I think the Pac 10 may be the best conference in the country. I have a hard time taking the Missouri Valley Conference seriously.
Sunday, March 4, 2007
Cinderella? Winthrop, perhaps?
So, based on last night's conference tournament outcomes, we now know that Davidson, Penn and Belmont have made it into the NCAA tournament. Realistically though, can any of the soon-to-be 14, 15 or 16 seeds really pull off the unthinkable by making the Final Four? It's highly doubtful considering that 95% of the time these seeds will lose in the first round. So, with that in mind, where will this year's Cinderella come from? My thought is that it will be a 12 seed that beats a 5 seed in the first round. Last year A&M beat Syracuse as a 12 seed, but you really can't consider a school with 45,000 students and deep pockets to be considered a Cinderella. If I recall correctly, George Mason was an 11 seed last year and that may have been a record for the lowest seed to make it to the Final Four. At this point, I'm not sure where Winthrop will be seeded, but they appear to be the most obvious candidate for the Cinderella role. Winthrop beat Missouri State and Mississippi State this year. Both of these wins were against quality opponents. I think we'll have to consider Davidson as well as a potential Cinderella. How about Xavier? Currently, I have them ranked 43 with quality wins over Villanova and Illinois.
Saturday, March 3, 2007
Senior Day At Texas A&M
Check out these really great photos from Senior Day at A&M. The NCAA tournament is just around the corner now. I'm anxious to see how the boys do. I'm very optimistic this year. I can't remember when I have seen a group of guys with this much character and drive to perform at the highest level. Things are about to get really fun my friends.
Friday, March 2, 2007
Top Ten Adjusted Offense/Defense Efficiency
I've become a believer in Ken Pomeroy's Predictive Analysis for determining the outcome of college basketball games. One of the most useful tools is his determination of the Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency of each team. Man, don't you love all these statistics??? I know I sure do. Anyway, basically, Pomeroy factors in the number of possessions to calculate the offensive and defensive efficiency for each team. I'd encourage you to read the link I provided to help fully understand the calculation since I would probably muck up the details here. So, taking these statistics into consideration, the teams that I believe that should be regarded very highly during the tournament due to their ranking in the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency are...
North Carolina
UCLA
Texas A&M
The teams next in line would be...
Kansas
Ohio State
Florida
Wisconsin
The teams next in line would be...
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Freshmen Phenoms
With the new NBA rule preventing players from going directly to the NBA from High School, many schools have been the beneficiary of some great players. As a result, this year has possessed many exciting moments for the college fan. Listed below are some of my favorites to watch. Try to catch these guys during the tournament. They are fun to watch.
Kevin Durant (Texas)
Greg Oden (Ohio State)
DJ Augustin (Texas)
Brandon Wright (North Carolina)
Raymar Morgan (Michigan State)
Sherron Collins (Kansas)
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