Log5 Predictions for the power conferences. Pomeroy's application of the Log5 formula to the Big 12 Tournament predicts there is a 53% chance that Kansas and Texas A&M will meet in the Championship Game.
The Log5 Principle basically states that in a short series (i.e. max of six games in the NCAA basketball tournament for each team) anything can happen in spite of statistics that lead us to believe a certain outcome is somewhat certain. Here's an example of the Big 12 on February 27th. The starting point for the calculation is the Pomeroy ranking (i.e. Kansas = 0.9872, Texas A&M = 0.9827, Texas = 0.9482, etc).
Last year, I factored in the Log5 into the Karas Criterion, but this year I did not. I'll simply refer to it as one source of information when making my picks this year.
Have fun with it (particularly if you are a betting person) !!!
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