Average Winning Odds

I do enjoy horse racing for the sport of it, but it's virtually impossible to win money over the long haul.  One can occassionally enjoy the thrill of winning some money every once in while ( the most I've won is $430 on a $30 exacta bet ), but over the long-term you will definitely lose.

I have run all kinds of simulations based on real historic race results as published in the Daily Racing Form.  If you were to take the "bet on the favorite" approach, you would win approximately 30% of your bets at an average winning odds of 7:5.  Over the course of 100 races ( of which you bet $2 each ), you would lose about $50.  If you were to take the "bet on the next best horse" approach, you would win about 20% of your bets with the average winning odds at 2:1.  You would lose about $80 over the course of those 100 races.

To achieve any type of significant positive returns over the long-term, you would need to win at least 32% or more of your bets at an average winning odds of about 5:2.  This can be achieved, but is VERY VERY difficult.

And, yes, you can certainly win money placing exotic bets, but remember that your winning percentage will go down significantly.  However, your average winning odds will also go up significantly though.  There is definitely a relationship between your winning percentage and the average winning odds of your picks.